C-SRNWP Programme

Quarterly Report (1^st of January, 2011 - 31^st of March, 2011)

Prepared by: Andras Horanyi,C-SRNWP PM

Hungarian Meteorological Service (OMSZ)

1024 Budapest, Kitaibel Pal utca 1.

Hungary

To: GIE EUMETNET Secretariat

Summary: The C-SRNWP Programme Manager is acting as Interim Forecasting Capability Programme Manager of EUMETNET, therefore activities were also realised around the coordination of EUMETNET forecasting activities with special emphasis on the forecasting roadmap developments. The proposed Forecasting Roadmap document was submitted to the STAC/PFAC committees. Active liaison was realised with the observation community of EUMETNET with special attention paid for the possible use of OPERA radar data for numerical weather prediction (where the more enhanced quality control is essential). The most important scientific coordination and discussion issue was about ensemble data assimilation, i.e. the merge of data assimilation and ensemble prediction methods in high resolution modelling.

Action required: For information and comment

Distribution: Public

Reference	Date	Author(s)	Content
	15 April, 2011	Andras Horanyi	Final

1. Headlines

The most important activity of the C-SRNWP programme during the first quarter of 2011 was our contribution to the discussions and the redaction of the EUMETNET Forecasting Roadmap (which is coming from the fact that the C-SRNW Programme Manager is acting as Interim Forecasting Capability Programme Manager as well). Beside email discussions and web conferences two face-to-face meetings were organised, where the man ingredients of the proposed Forecasting Roadmap was discussed and agreed. Special emphasis was put on the links with the other roadmaps: observations and climate. The application of OPERA radar information to numerical weather prediction (NWP) was promoted with the proposal for the enhancement of the OPERA quality control algorithms in a short time-frame (otherwise the OPERA data cannot be used for the NWP models). Beside that the extension of the surface database (for model validations) had been started with the negotiations for two new sites: Valday in Russia and Debrecen in Hungary. As far as scientific developments are concerned intensive discussions were carried out in the field of ensemble data assimilation during a dedicated workshop.

2. Status of programmatic targets

The main activity of the C-SRNWP programme is the coordination between the five LAM Consortia in Europe (ALADIN, COSMO, HIRLAM, LACE and Met Office). The coordination is ensured by the eight Expert Teams (data assimilation and use of observations; diagnostics, validation and verification; dynamics and lateral boundary coupling; link with applications; physical parameterization: upper air; predictability and EPS; surface and soil processes: model and data assimilation; system aspects) and the regular contacts between the members of the SRNWP Advisory Committee. Beside that, two SRNWP-related programmes (responsible member: Met Office) are ongoing (their reports are prepared independently): SRNWP-I (Interoperability; valid until autumn 2011) and SRNWP-V (Verification; its new programme stage just started).

2.1. Expert Team issues

The Expert Teams continued their activities based on their respective workplans (which are available at the srnwp.met.hu webpage of the C-SRNWP programme). In this period most activities were carried out in the framework of the "data assimilation and use of observation", "surface and soil processes (model and data assimilation)" and "predictability and EPS" Expert Teams. The data assimilation (upper air and surface) issues were intensively discussed in relation with the observational roadmap NWP requirements, where input was provided to the Observation Roadmap Drafting Team. Thorough discussions were held in the field of radar data quality control in the view of the use of OPERA radar composite information in operational data assimilation process of the Consortia NWP models. This subject is essential, since otherwise the composite radar data cannot be used in the high resolution numerical models, therefore the SRNWP community is urging the introduction of the relevant quality control algorithms into OPERA (as soon as possible). Beside that the surface data exchange had been continued providing access to more and more users (now there are around 10 persons accessing and using the collected data). The access point to the database is at http://www.cosmo-model.org/srnwp/content/default.htm. Two more sites were approached: Valday (Russia) and Debrecen (Hungary), where negotiations started for obtaining permission and regarding the practical details of the exchange. The data assimilation and EPS researchers were organising a workshop dealing with the links between data assimilation and ensemble prediction (ensemble data assimilation), which is an emerging field in NWP, therefore its evolution will have crucial importance for the future of high resolution (non-hydrostatic) modelling.

2.2 SRNWP Advisory Committee issues

The SRNWP Advisory Committee continued its work mostly through correspondence, however in the framework of the Forecasting Roadmap Drafting Team most of the members met through email exchanges, web conferences and the two Drafting Team meetings. Therefore the emphasis was put on the Forecasting Roadmap developments and the related issues (for instance about the liaison with the observational – see also OPERA issues above – and climate roadmaps).

2.3 Links with the partners

3. Communication and cooperation

The Programme Manager attended several meetings on behalf of the programme, which were as follows:

Forecasting Roadmap Drafting Team meeting, Budapest (Hungary), 20 January, 2011.
Forecasting Roadmap Drafting Team meeting, Budapest (Hungary), 20 January, 2011.
Ensemble Data Assimilation workshop, Bologna (Italy), 22-25 February, 2011.
EUCOS Science Advisory Team (E-SAT) meeting, Reading (Great-Britain), 10-11 March, 2011.
EUMETNET STAC meeting, Reading (Great-Britain), 22-23 March, 2011.

4. Benefits Delivery

The activities inside the European limited area modelling Consortia are clearly extremely beneficial for the EUMETNET partners, since the developed models significantly contribute to the forecasting activities of the meteorological services with special emphasis on the protection of life and property. This work is enhanced by the C-SRNWP programme with its cooperation and competition character, where the improvement of the Consortia models can be achieved through the scientific and technological exchange between them.

5. Financial report

C-SRNWP			Date:	31.03.2011

Quarterly Income and Cost Statement

Q1 Statement	Year to date	Forecast to end of year	Balance (Forec - YtD)	Approved budget	Next year's planned budget
REVENUE:
R1 Contributions from participating members	17,500	35,000	-17,500	35,000	100,000

Total Revenue	17,500	35,000	-17,500	35,000	100,000

COST:
C1 Salary	7,500	30,000	-22,500	30,000	90,000
C2 PM Travel	1,821	5,000	-3,179	5,000	10,000

Total cost:	9,321	35,000	-25,679	35,000	100,000

Balance in year - surplus / (deficit)	8,179	0	8,179	0	0

SURPLUS
S1 Surplus at start of year	0	0	0	0	0
S2 Approved allocation to revenue	0	0	0	0	0
S3 In year project surplus or deficit	8,179	0	8,179	0	0
S4 Surplus at end of period	8,179	0	8,179	0	0

6. Risks and issues

The C-SRNWP Programme Manager is also acting as Interim Forecasting Capability Programme Manager of EUMETNET, which means more coordination and administrative burden. On the other hand the resources available for the work is unchanged (0,3 FTE), therefore the additional duties coming from the higher level forecasting coordination can be realised only o a good-will basis and certainly with some limitations. It is of interest of EUMETNET and the Programme Manager to normalise the situation as soon as possible (provision of more resources or the establishment of the Forecasting Capability Programme Manager role on a permanent basis).

7. Programme change requests to Assembly

In the view of the Forecasting Roadmap developments two options were proposed for the continuation of the C-SRNWP programme beyond 2011. One option is to extend it with one year until the end of 2012, but with enriched resources taking into account the additional tasks to be realised in the context of the Interim Forecasting Capability Programme Manager role. The other option is to terminate the C-SRNWP programme and position it into the newly established Forecasting Capability Programme, where beside the C-SRNWP coordination the overall coordination inside the forecasting projects of EUMETNET would be also ensured.

8. Outlook for rest of the year

The C-SRNWP programme (as Interim Forecasting Capability Programme as well) will continue to have its active role in the definition of the Forecasting Roadmap of EUMETNET, therefore significant further work is planned to be carried out into that direction. As far as the scientific issues are concerned the SRNWP workshop on non-hydrostatic modelling is going to be organised in Germany in May and the preparations for the autumn EWGLAM/SRNWP meeting (to be held in Estonia) will start soon.