PROGRAMME
FOR WORKSHOP ON SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE PREDICTION USING LIMITED-AREA MODELS
INM,
3-4 October 2002
Chairman: Jean Quiby
Bartolomé Orfila / Jean Quiby, INM/SRNWP
Eugenia Kalnay, Universty of Maryland
Ken Mylne, UKMO. Download PowerPoint
11.30-12.00
"NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting (SREF) System: Current Status and
Plan"
12.00-12.30
The ARPA-SMR LEPS system and the COSMO-LEPS project.
12.30-13.00
"Short Range Ensemble Forecasting at Météo-France"
LUNCH
14.30-15.00
"Predictability Issues in High-Resolution NWP and plans at MeteoSwiss"
André Walser, ETH Zurich (MeteoSwiss as of 1.9.02)
and
Marco Arpagaus, MeteoSwiss. Download PowerPoint
15.00-15.30
"HIRLAM Mini-Ensembles of Historical Heavy Rain Events"
Kai Sattler, DMI.
15.30-16.00
"The uncertainty in the prediction of flash floods in the Northern Mediterranean
COFFEE
BREAK
16.30-16.50
"Perturbation of Parametrized Tendencies and Surface Parameters in the
Lokal-Modell"
Susanne Theis, University of Bonn. Download PowerPoint
16.50-17.10
"Plans and current work"
17.10-17.30
"Plans for short range ensemble forecast in INM"
Martin Ehrendorfer, University of Innsbruck
9.30-10.00
Dynamics and predictability of the regional Eta model
10.00-10.30
Limited-area ensembles using targeted SVs
COFFEE
BREAK
11.00-13.30
Discussions
Discussions on a possible work programme for a coordinated European approach to short-range ensemble forecasts.
Topics
to be discussed:
·methodologies
for boundary perturbations
·methodologies
for initial perturbations
·representation
of model error
·size
of ensembles
·validation
techniques
·case
studies
·next
meeting
LUNCH
15.00-15.30
Final Conclusions