PROGRAMME FOR WORKSHOP ON SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE PREDICTION USING LIMITED-AREA MODELS

INM, 3-4 October 2002

Thursday

Chairman:    Jean Quiby
8.45-9.15     Welcome - introductory remarks - aims of the workshop
Bartolomé Orfila / Jean Quiby, INM/SRNWP
9.15-9.45    "Ensemble Forecasting - An Introduction".
Tim Palmer, ECMWF.                   Download PowerPoint
9.45-10.15    "Multisystem ensembles, the SAMEX experience"
Eugenia Kalnay, Universty of Maryland
COFFEE BREAK
10.45-11.30    "Poor Man's EPS experiments and ensemble plans at the Met Office"
"Plans for short-range ensemble experiments at the Met Office"
Ken Mylne, UKMO.                     Download PowerPoint

11.30-12.00    "NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting (SREF) System: Current Status and Plan"

12.00-12.30    The ARPA-SMR LEPS system and the COSMO-LEPS project.

12.30-13.00    "Short Range Ensemble Forecasting at Météo-France"

Jean Nicolau, Météo-France.                                 Download PowerPoint

LUNCH 

14.30-15.00    "Predictability Issues in High-Resolution NWP and plans at MeteoSwiss"

André Walser, ETH Zurich (MeteoSwiss as of 1.9.02)
and
Marco Arpagaus, MeteoSwiss.                             Download PowerPoint

15.00-15.30    "HIRLAM Mini-Ensembles of Historical Heavy Rain Events"

Kai Sattler, DMI.

15.30-16.00    "The uncertainty in the prediction of flash floods in the Northern Mediterranean

                                environment; single site approach and multicatchment system approach"
CIMA - Centro di Ricerca Interuniversitario in Monitoraggio Ambientale, Università di Genova, Universita della Basilicata.

COFFEE BREAK

16.30-16.50    "Perturbation of Parametrized Tendencies and Surface Parameters in the Lokal-Modell"

Susanne Theis, University of Bonn.          Download PowerPoint

16.50-17.10    "Plans and current work"

17.10-17.30    "Plans for short range ensemble forecast in INM"

Friday

Chairman:     Tim Palmer

9.00-9.30    SVs in limited area models
Martin Ehrendorfer, University of Innsbruck

9.30-10.00    Dynamics and predictability of the regional Eta model

10.00-10.30    Limited-area ensembles using targeted SVs

COFFEE BREAK

11.00-13.30    Discussions

Discussions on a possible work programme for a coordinated European approach to short-range ensemble forecasts.

Topics to be discussed:

·methodologies for boundary perturbations

·methodologies for initial perturbations

·representation of model error

·size of ensembles

·validation techniques

·case studies

·next meeting

LUNCH

15.00-15.30    Final Conclusions